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Pivoting Trade Policy with China

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President Trump’s upcoming meeting with President Xi is an opportunity to pivot trade and investment policies. They both have an incentive to end the tit for tat battle over tariffs and other restrictions on trade that have created uncertainty and chaos in global markets.

The opening of China to global trade resulted in a rapid growth in trade as a share of GDP, reaching a peak of about 60% at the turn of the century, followed by a sharp decline to less than 40% over the past two decades. In the U.S. that ratio reached a peak about 40% followed by a more modest decline. Other developed countries experienced trends in trade like that of the U.S. Clearly, trade has not been the engine of economic growth in recent decades that it was in the post-World War Two period.


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