The Current Oil Crisis — De Ja Vu All Over Again

In response to attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran has effectively closed the Hormuz Strait to shipping. The result of the Iran War has been a sharp increase in oil prices. With apologies to Yogi Berra, we have seen this scenario before, when Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956.

Great Britain responded to the nationalization of the Suez crisis by invading Egypt. Prime Minister Anthony Eden launched that invasion without the support of the United States and other allies. He was so obsessed with the removal of Egypt’s president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and regime change in Egypt that he was willing to risk an invasion that failed. Great Britain never quite recovered from that debacle; the Suez Crisis spelled the end of the British Empire.

The Suez Crisis was a debacle not only for Great Britain but for the United States. In the chaos that followed the invasion of Egypt, the Soviet Union entered to fill the vacuum left in the Middle East.

However, the Suez Crisis had positive outcomes for the United States and its allies. President Dwight Eisenhower responded to the Suez debacle in 1957 by formulating the Eisenhower Doctrine, which would guide our Mideast foreign policy for decades. The doctrine declared that the United States would distribute economic and military aid, and if necessary, use military force to stop the spread of communism in the Middle East. The Eisenhower Doctrine reaffirmed our commitment to NATO and our allies that the United States would deter and counter the threat posed by the Soviet Union.

What is clear is that President Trump’s decision to launch the Iran War without the support of allies was a grievous error. When Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, Trump pleaded with allies to provide military support to reopen the strait to shipping. He was rebuffed; a few countries offered support, but only after the war. 

The irony is not lost on the British. We stood by while Anthony Eden invaded Egypt; Great Britain stood by as the United States and Israel launched the Iran War.

Trump’s criticism of NATO over the years, and his decision not to seek support from NATO and our allies before launching the war has left that agreement in shreds.

The Iran War and closure of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate how important the free passage of shipping is for all countries. The global economy has been seriously damaged. The shared economic interests of all countries should lead them to support a new governing structure for the strait.

We have learned a great deal from the governing structures created to guarantee safe passage for shipping through other straits, including the Suez Canal. The 1888 Constantinople Convention guaranteed safe passage through the Suez Canal in peace and war. The Suez Canal Authority was created to administer the treaty. Since the Suez Crisis, all nations have recognized this governance structure’s neutrality as the legal framework for access to the canal.

Drawing from these lessons, the United States should work with other countries to create a permanent governing structure for the Hormuz Strait. A Hormuz Navigation Treaty could establish a governing body, such as the Suez Canal Authority, to guarantee safe passage in peace and war. The treaty could provide for joint patrols, coordination of intelligence and military coordination to prevent another outbreak of hostilities. 

The treaty would prevent closure except under narrowly defined conditions. Such a treaty would require coordination with all the neighboring states of Iran, Oman, UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The success of such a treaty would also require the support of global stakeholders, including the European Union, China, Japan, India, and the United States.

Trump has failed to articulate his strategy. The optimum strategy going forward is to rebuild ties to our allies and restore our commitment to NATO. A renewed U.S. commitment to support NATO would send an important message to allies: the U.S. remains committed to the Eisenhower Doctri

ne and to defending the Middle East against the spread of communism.

Read the full article in DC Journal: https://dcjournal.com/the-current-oil-crisis-de-ja-vu-all-over-again/

William Owens is a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and serves on the Board of the Prosperity for US Foundation.

Barry W. Poulson is professor emeritus at the University of Colorado Boulder and serves on the Board of the Prosperity for US Foundation.